The most dangerous idea ever is that humans will be vastly transcended by AI

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The advent of next-generation AI has brought into sharp focus one of the biggest divides of all: our perception of humanity’s place in the Universe.

I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

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University education still matters, especially for generational economic mobility

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Formal education is critical for generational mobility, allowing young people to transcend engrained perceptions to not just learn, but demonstrate their capabilities by recognised paths.

Jose Luis Alvarado, dean of the Fordham Graduate School of Education, has written an excellent counter-narrative to those saying that tertiary education doesn’t matter any more, om the deep inequity of the anti-college movement. He shares how he was told at school he shouldn’t aspire to going to college. Others didn’t see his potential, quite possibly because of his family background.
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David Droga at SxSW Sydney on creativity and AI

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David Droga is absolutely someone I wanted to hear from at SxSW Sydney (among many other claims to fame he is the most awarded creative ever at Cannes Lion and CEO of the $16 billion agency Accenture Song).

Creativity was long supposed to be last bastion of human dominion over machines,. Yet over the last 18 months that has been cast into doubt. So what is the future of creativity in a world in which AI is – in some ways at least – becoming creative? It’s best to get it in David’s words. Here are some of most interesting quotes I captured from the session.

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Four pillars boards need to understand about generative AI

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Generative AI is moving past being a buzzword to being woven into the fabric of business strategy and operations. It will undounbtedly lead to innovation, reconfiguration, and transformation across sectors. As it moves to the heart of business models and work structures, boards and executives must not only understand but adeptly navigate its complexities.

Responding to the results of a survey of board members, leading business thinker Tom Davenport asks Are Boards Kidding Themselves About Generative AI? In particular he points to their claimed degree of expertise in generative AI.

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What the democratization of software development means for organizations

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Low-code and no-code software development have been around for a while. Now the rise of AI-assisted software development is pushing the power of software creation to the next level. This provides big opportunities but also risks that need to be managed.

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David Autor on the design of how we use AI and work polarization

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MIT professsor David Autor is one of the leading labor economists in the world and expert on the impact of technology on work. I have frequently referenced his work, notably on the polarization of work. 

An interview in Financial Times shares his perspectives on the role of AI in work. As Autor emphasizes and I have been saying for many years, the issue is in the design of work and the economy, and the mental models we apply to how we do that.

The whole interview is worth reading, here are a few excerpts.

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The massive bust in virtual event platforms and what comes next

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The last few days have marked the massive bust in virtual events: Verizon closed down BlueJeans, Run The World bought by EventMobi, and Hopin’s event management platform was acquired by RingCentral.

Hopin was valued at $7.6 billion and now appears to be valued at around $400 million.

Verizon paid $500 million which is now effectively written off.

Run the World raised $15 million including from Andreessen Horowitz. While a sale price wasn’t disclosed Techcrunch noted that there were 500 events recently listed, down from 15,000.

What went wrong?

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Is San Francisco coming back? 9 factors shaping its future

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For a couple of decades San Francisco has been my ‘second city’ after Sydney, where I’ve gotten to know the city, built a network of fascinating people, and run a number of conferences. 

After a break during Covid, I’ve been back briefly 4 times in the last 8 months, usually en-route to US speaking gigs, catching up with people, going to events, and getting a bit of a feel for the city post-pandemic.  

In my conversations here I’ve experienecd deep division of opinions on the state and future of San Francisco, with some seeing it as well past its peak following an exodus over the last years (“it’s a shithole”), while others believe it is in the early stages of a renaissance (“everyone’s coming back”).

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Argument analysis of Andreessen’s ‘AI Will Save the World’ article

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I’m in San Francisco at the Internet Archive (one of the most wonderful artefacts in the history of the web – read about it), attending an AI Knowledge Mapping  Hackathon run by Society Library Founder Jamie Joyce, The event supports the building of a knowledge graph of public debates. This event focused on Marc Andreessen’s recent famous AI Will Save the World article, adding human-generated arguments against every sentence and AI-excerpted proposition.

It’s a great exercise. When I first read the article and listened to the accompanying podcast, I found myself agreeing with just about everything, but it still left me deeply unconvinced on some aspects of the piece. So it’s been good to go back to it in depth. 

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The Six Facets of the Singularity

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I first came across the concept of the Singularity a few decades ago. I was intrigued but sceptical on a number of fronts. There seemed to be some massive and highly questionable assumptions behind it all. 

Yet a belief in the concept of accelerating returns in all its guises has been central to my life, and you certainly can’t discard the idea of the Singularity. The inevitability of it happening as described is more debatable.

However ssince November 30, 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, many of the ideas of the Singularity are not only far more current, they have become central to discussions across many dimensions of society. 

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