The most dangerous idea ever is that humans will be vastly transcended by AI

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The advent of next-generation AI has brought into sharp focus one of the biggest divides of all: our perception of humanity’s place in the Universe.

I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

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If AI ethical advice is as good as human advice, what is its role?

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A very interesting paper The AI Ethicist: Fact or Fiction? reports that there is “no significant difference in the perceived value of the advice between human generated ethical advice and AI-generated ethical advice”.

In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.

The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?
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James Lovelock: Gaia and the rise of hyperintelligence

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James Lovelock, the creator of the Gaia hypothesis, that the Earth is a holistic self-maintaining system, died last week. As a coincidence I read his last book, Novacene, over the weekend before I had heard the news.

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As long as the universe is changing… there will be opportunities

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All change creates both challenges and opportunities.

All life is change: being born, growing, learning, maturing, dying, evolving.

Society is continually transforming: moving from the past to the future, building on our human history, creating new and unique manifestations of humanity.

Our world is morphing: the turning of the seasons, the movement of the continents, shifts in climate and flora and fauna, both natural and anthropogenic.
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Thought landscape: Thinking, Technology, Business, Humanity

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In order to gain more clarity for myself on what is important to me, I have created a draft Thought Landscape of primary topics, arranged across four related themes: Thinking, Technology, Business, and Humanity. This will be useful for me in filtering information and guiding the frameworks I develop on these topics.
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Report: A greener and safer global energy system will also be cheaper

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For decades one of the most reliable possible predictions has been that official forecasts for renewable energy would underestimate the actual pace of cost reductions and installations.

The chart on the left shows the actual growth in photovoltaic (PV) solar installations in black, compared to the annually updated forecasts from the World Energy Agency in color. Linear thinking prevails, while exponential factors are at play.

An insightful new report from the Oxford Martin School’s Institute for New Economic Thinking Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition takes a more realistic and empirical perspective on the likely trajectory for costs and uptake of renewable energy. The report concludes that:
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The next year and beyond: implications of shifting from pandemic to endemic COVID

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We’ve come a long way this year. Currently over 50% of Americans, close to 60% of Western Europeans, and 24% of the global population have been fully vaccinated against COVID. Every day around one in 200 people in the world receives a vaccination.

Of course this does not portend the end of COVID. This is underlined by recent data from Israel, where there are around 8000 cases daily, despite 78% of the population being double vaccinated.

Pandemic (from pan meaning ‘all’) is used to describe an epidemic that has spread across nations and sometimes the world. Endemic refers to diseases that may be widespread, but with relatively consistent numbers over extended periods.
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In the future what will we look back at in horror about our world today?

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An article in Sydney Morning Herald today, What we do now that will be unfathomable by 2050, looks at what we might not be able to imagine about our lives today.

The piece quotes me on cars and parking:
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Summary of the new US Intelligence Global Trends report on 2040

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The US National Intelligence Council has been using scenario methdologies to look into the future since the 1990s.

Today they released the 7th edition of their Global Trends report, examining the risks and challenges of the next 20 years.

Below I have selected some visual highlights from the 156 page report that distill some of key insights.
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2021+ 9 themes for next year and beyond

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The end of each year is always a good time to distil predictions for what is coming. 2020 has been an absolutely pivotal year, it is a critical time for us to actively make sense of our path forward.

In the slides below I have laid out 9 themes that I believe will be at the center of our world in 2021 and beyond.
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