Futurist resources > Prediction markets
Prediction markets and crowdsourced futures
Prediction markets have gained currency over the last 15 years as a tool to enable crowdsourced insights into the future. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies.
| Product | Organization | Description |
| Augur | Augur Protocol/ The Forecast Foundation | Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. It is used for predicting political outcomes as well as forecasting weather events. It can also be used to predict catastrophic events thereby hedging against disaster. Companies can use Augur for internal forecasts: sales, project completion, trends, etc. The website https://predictions.global/ was independently developed as a homepage for viewing the predictions made using Augur. |
| Climate Prediction Market | Winton Group | This market is dedicated to drawing concensus over climate change. |
| Conjoint.ly Prediction Market | Conjoint.ly | A market research predicton market which is focused on helping companies engage their customer base. |
| Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation (CREATE) | Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) | CREATE is a crowdsourced forecasting project developed by the U.S. intelligence agency IARPA primarily for geo-political forecasting. |
| Cultivate Forecasts | Cultivate Labs | Cultivate Forecasts started life as Inkling, one of the premiere prediction markets. Inkling merged with another company to form Cultivate Labs which focuses on internal crowdsourced forcasting, mostly for corporates. |
| FAZ.NET-Orakel | Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | A German prediction market hosted by a German newspaper. |
| Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge | Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) | IARPA ran a challenge from March 2018 to September 2018 to identify R&D teams who can develop superior forecasting systems that include crowdsourcing. IARPA has been instrumental in supporting prediction markets such as Good Judgement. |
| Gnosis Trading Interface | Peer-to-Peer | Gnosis actually has two prediction markets, GTO and Olympia which is their alpha testing ground that grants uses free currency. GTO allows users to trade in prediction markets with real value. Gnosis is also a platform for developers to create their own markets. |
| Good Judgement | Good Judgement Project | Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock wrote the book, Superforecasting, and the Good Judgement Project is based on the application of their theories. |
| Hivemind | Peer-to-Peer | Hivemind aggregates data and provides a protocol for users to create prediction markets. |
| Huunu | Consensus Point | Huunu is the platform used by Consensus Point. Using behavioural science theories, they have progressed market research beyond the 5-point scale. Dr. Robin Hanson, the inventor of the automated prediction market, is chief scientist. |
| Iowa Electronic Markets | The University of Iowa | The faculty of the University of Iowa developed this market as a pedagogical tool for engaging students to learn about real-world markets. Students and faculty from over 100 universities around the world wager real money on future economic and political events. |
| Long Bets | The Long Now Foundation | Although not a prediction market by definition, The Long Now Foundation established this forum to engage the public with long term thinking. The wagers that are placed are held between two entities rather than selling shares in a prediction as most prediction markets do. The proceeds are donated to charity. |
| myEdge | myEdge | Started in 2017, myEdge is a comparison site that allows users to trade in prediction markets on any platform using a single token currency that exchanges to the currency of the target market. Users can therefore therefore trade on multiple prediction markets at the same time without the hassle separate accounts. |
| Predictious | Pixode Games | Launched in 2013, Predictious trades in Bitcoin on a variety of topics: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and science & technology. However, political predictions are currently the most active. |
| PredictIt | Victoria University | PredictIt sells shares in different predictions. It is primarily used for predicting political outcomes, but they also facilitate financial predictions. |
| Prediki | Prediki | Prediki offers participants prize money for sponsored questions. It also collects comments from participants to provide clients with qualitative reasons for why participants have chosen their predictions. |
| Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets | Sauder School of Business | UBC Sauder uses prediction markets on political outcomes in Canada to teach students about financial markets, politics, and current events. |
| Product |
| Augur |
| Organization |
| Augur Protocol/ The Forecast Foundation |
| Description |
| Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. It is used for predicting political outcomes as well as forecasting weather events. It can also be used to predict catastrophic events thereby hedging against disaster. Companies can use Augur for internal forecasts: sales, project completion, trends, etc. The website https://predictions.global/ was independently developed as a homepage for viewing the predictions made using Augur. |
| Product |
| Climate Prediction Market |
| Organization |
| Winton Group |
| Description |
| This market is dedicated to drawing concensus over climate change. |
| Product |
| Conjoint.ly Prediction Market |
| Organization |
| Conjoint.ly |
| Description |
| A market research predicton market which is focused on helping companies engage their customer base. |
| Product |
| Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation (CREATE) |
| Organization |
| Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) |
| Description |
| CREATE is a crowdsourced forecasting project developed by the U.S. intelligence agency IARPA primarily for geo-political forecasting. |
| Product |
| Cultivate Forecasts |
| Organization |
| Cultivate Labs |
| Description |
| Cultivate Forecasts started life as Inkling, one of the premiere prediction markets. Inkling merged with another company to form Cultivate Labs which focuses on internal crowdsourced forcasting, mostly for corporates. |
| Product |
| FAZ.NET-Orakel |
| Organization |
| Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
| Description |
| A German prediction market hosted by a German newspaper. |
| Product |
| Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge |
| Organization |
| Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) |
| Description |
| IARPA ran a challenge from March 2018 to September 2018 to identify R&D teams who can develop superior forecasting systems that include crowdsourcing. IARPA has been instrumental in supporting prediction markets such as Good Judgement. |
| Product |
| Gnosis Trading Interface |
| Organization |
| Peer-to-Peer |
| Description |
| Gnosis actually has two prediction markets, GTO and Olympia which is their alpha testing ground that grants uses free currency. GTO allows users to trade in prediction markets with real value. Gnosis is also a platform for developers to create their own markets. |
| Product |
| Good Judgement |
| Organization |
| Good Judgement Project |
| Description |
| Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock wrote the book, Superforecasting, and the Good Judgement Project is based on the application of their theories. |
| Product |
| Hivemind |
| Organization |
| Peer-to-Peer |
| Description |
| Hivemind aggregates data and provides a protocol for users to create prediction markets. |
| Product |
| Huunu |
| Organization |
| Consensus Point |
| Description |
| Huunu is the platform used by Consensus Point. Using behavioural science theories, they have progressed market research beyond the 5-point scale. Dr. Robin Hanson, the inventor of the automated prediction market, is chief scientist. |
| Product |
| Iowa Electronic Markets |
| Organization |
| The University of Iowa |
| Description |
| The faculty of the University of Iowa developed this market as a pedagogical tool for engaging students to learn about real-world markets. Students and faculty from over 100 universities around the world wager real money on future economic and political events. |
| Product |
| Long Bets |
| Organization |
| The Long Now Foundation |
| Description |
| Although not a prediction market by definition, The Long Now Foundation established this forum to engage the public with long term thinking. The wagers that are placed are held between two entities rather than selling shares in a prediction as most prediction markets do. The proceeds are donated to charity. |
| Product |
| myEdge |
| Organization |
| myEdge |
| Description |
| Started in 2017, myEdge is a comparison site that allows users to trade in prediction markets on any platform using a single token currency that exchanges to the currency of the target market. Users can therefore therefore trade on multiple prediction markets at the same time without the hassle separate accounts. |
| Product |
| Predictious |
| Organization |
| Pixode Games |
| Description |
| Launched in 2013, Predictious trades in Bitcoin on a variety of topics: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and science & technology. However, political predictions are currently the most active. |
| Product |
| PredictIt |
| Organization |
| Victoria University |
| Description |
| PredictIt sells shares in different predictions. It is primarily used for predicting political outcomes, but they also facilitate financial predictions. |
| Product |
| Prediki |
| Organization |
| Prediki |
| Description |
| Prediki offers participants prize money for sponsored questions. It also collects comments from participants to provide clients with qualitative reasons for why participants have chosen their predictions. |
| Product |
| Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets |
| Organization |
| Sauder School of Business |
| Description |
| UBC Sauder uses prediction markets on political outcomes in Canada to teach students about financial markets, politics, and current events. |
