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FUTURE VISION

Forces of disruption
Shifting business models
Work transition
Industry outlook

RISK

Acceptance
Pace of transformation
Ecosystem engagement
Granular risk appetite

CULTURE

Aligned purpose
Collaboration
Learning
Fast failure

INNOVATION

Strategies
Structures
Metrics
Priorities

COMMUNICATION

All stakeholders
Transparency
Participation
Clarity

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Also see Futurist services for PR.

SHIFTS

STRUCTURE
Globalization and Localization
Power to individuals
Networked society
Crisis amplification
MEDIA
Fewer mainstream outlets
Fewer journalists
Shift from advertising
Rise of social media
CLIENTS
More sophisticated
Want clear ROI
Expect collaboration
Shifting marketing budgets
EXPECTATIONS
Transparency
Sustainability
Speed
Participation

OPPORTUNITIES

Customer co-created brands
Enable corporate transparency
Customized branded content
Integrate internal and external brands
Lead generation
Corporate Social Responsibilty
Emerging markets
Interactive content
Spanning earned, owned, paid media
Lead for all social engagement
Community development for platform businesses
Individual reputation management

CAPABILITIES

Cross-channel integration
Meaningful data analytics
Visual content
Mobile engagement
Content promotion
Influencer outreach
Search positioning
Client collaboration

TRANSFORMATION

STRUCTURE
Freelancers and crowdsourcing
Offshore centers
Cross-specialization teams
Integrated agency networks
TALENT
Attract new skillsets
Develop new skillsets
Diverse specialists
C-level engagement
POSITIONING
Breadth vs depth
Beyond ‘PR’
Industry specialization
Capability mix

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PRINCIPLES

Enable value-interactions
Build fluidity
Enhance existing value propositions
Develop communities
External innovation
Positive feedback loops

POSITIONING

Collaboration vs competition
Open vs bounded
Participant selection
Own or participate
Aggregator/facilitator/community
Single owner/multiple owners

PARTICIPATION

Analyze choices and trade-offs
Apply game theory
Develop negotiation strength
Set contingent strategies
Make platform commitments
Identify scenarios and potential paths

DESIGN

Value for participants
Focused value creation
Transparency & information boundaries
Dampen negative feedback loops
Personalized value
Governance structures

CAPABILITIES

Platform strategy
Community management
Reputation measures
Applied analytics
User experience
Orchestration and facilitation

GROWTH

Participation incentives
Leverage existing relationships
Platform extension
Amplify value from participation
Build participant visibility
Promote interactions

The framework should be read from the bottom layer, building from the foundational elements to the broadest levels of impact.

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DRIVERS

Pace of AI development across domains
Growth in internet access in developing countries
Pace of growth of on-demand work platforms
Workforce diversity and high-level female work participation
Rising expectations for quality of life and positive impact

RESPONSES

Regulation of non-traditional work structures
Availability of continuous and work transition education
Developed world immigration policies
People’s ability to respond to Constant, rapid change
Comfort with AI-driven customer interfaces

ORGANIZATIONS

Pace of transformation of work design and organizations
Shift to fluid work structures and shorter work weeks
Growth of entrepreneurial employment
Ability of corporations to attract and retain talent
Attrition rate of corporate laggards

ECONOMY

Worker share of value creation
Share of permanent jobs in the workforce
Shifts in elderly employment and retirement age
Rise of participatory economy models
Wealth and income polarization

SOCIETY

Extent of ‘technological unemployment’
Robustness of social support structures
Role of personal data in society and employment
Broad availability of fulfilling work
Social polarization and unrest

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Vectors of Disruption: a framework to clarify the key forces of change

DISRUPTION

BUSINESS MODELS
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
URBAN STRUCTURE
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

STRUCTURAL SHIFTS

AUTOMATION
Autonomous agents
Customer service
Decisions
Health
Home
Logistics
Manufacturing
Tasks
Transport
Workflow
PLATFORMS
Crowd funding
Digital identity
Open innovation
Decentralized utilities
Autonomous organizations
Crypto currencies
Aggregated crowds
Everything-as-a-Service
Two-sided marketplaces
Relationship aggregation

HIGH-IMPACT DEVELOPMENTS

AI
ROBOTICS
BOTS
PERSONAL DEVICES
BIG DATA
INTERNET OF THINGS
VR/AR/MR
DRONES BLOCKCHAIN
GLOBALIZED REGULATION
CAPITAL REALLOCATION
POWER TO INDIVIDUAL

UNDERLYING FORCES

TECHNOLOGIES
Energy
Solar efficiency
Energy storage
Distributed grid
Electric vehicles

Health
Predictive data
Gene editing
Real-time monitoring
DNA analytics

Materials
Synthetic materials
3D printing
Nanotech
Circular materials

INFORMATION
Data
Low cost storage
Low cost sensors
Geolocation
DNA storage

Processing
Chip density
Quantum computing
Parallel processing
Algorithm sophistication

Connectivity
Wired gigabit
5G+
M2M
Bandwidth sharing

Interfaces
Screen density
Position tracking
Spatial displays
Digital ink

EXPECTATIONS
Customer
Experience
Convenience
Personalization
Immediacy

Society
Transparency
Sustainability
Accountability
Privacy

Investors
Growth
Scaling
Efficiency
Renewal

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WORK DISRUPTION

CONNECTED WORK
Virtual teams
Service marketplaces
Remote operation
Crowdsourcing
Distributed workflow
Open innovation

AUTOMATION
Machine learning
Humanoid robots
Artificial intelligence
Vehicle operation
Human service emulation
Process automation

DISTINCTIVE HUMAN CAPABILITIES

EXPERTISE
RELATIONSHIPS
CREATIVITY
Judgment
Sense making
Decision making
Synthesis
Framing decisions
Collaboration
Conceptualizing
Human-centered design
Peer learning
Problem solving
Negotiating
Communicating
Visualizing
Trust building
Inspiring
Influencing
Storytelling

STRUCTURE OF WORK

WORK DESIGN
Machine-human complementarity
Fluid work roles
Location independence
Serendipitous connections
Job sharing
Emergent collaboration
Continuous learning
Analytics feedback loops

HIGH-PERFORMANCE ORGANIZATIONS
Aligned values
Diverse perspectives
Ad-hoc networks
Internal work markets
Culture of participation
Mutual trust development
External work ecosystems
Open peer communication

Also see our one-page visual of the Future of Work Framework.

Video transcript

UNDERLYING DRIVERS
We are connected as never before. Today 3 billion people are accessing the Internet; 2 billion more will join us over the next 5 years, almost all of them through mobile devices.

Extraordinary increases in processing power are taking us to new frontiers in artificial intelligence, ranging from making sense of language to spatial cognition that enables robots to comfortably navigate the world.

Demographics is driving our future, but that is playing out very differently across countries, leading to migration from young countries to old. Everywhere there is a decreasing ratio of workers to the elderly they need to support.

Society is being driven by increasing expectations across the board, including of opportunity, flexibility, equity, and having a positive impact on the world.

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Modularization is reshaping businesses and economies, as activities and business processes are unbundled into discrete, complementary modules, and connectivity drives increasing specialization.

Everything is being globalized, not just products and services, but also research, innovation and eventually almost all organisational functions.

Labor productivity is being driven by technology, but very differently across industries. Lower capital requirements for most businesses are accentuating the value of highly-skilled individuals.

In a connected world polarization risks increasing the divide between those whose capabilities are becoming commoditized and the elite who have world-class specialist knowledge, relationships, or creativity.

LABOR DISPLACEMENT
Almost all work can be performed at a distance, with telepresence and virtual worlds enabling global collaboration, and even machinery and vehicles now operated remotely.

The rise of work marketplaces is making vast pools of talent available to companies. This puts pressure on the pay of lower-skilled workers but provides global opportunities for the most talented.

New crowdsourcing structures are enabling us to effectively tap the minds of many, driving innovation and distilling collective insight.

The reality is that jobs are being rapidly replaced by machines, not just for routine tasks but also for ones involving personal interaction and judgment.

EMERGING LANDSCAPE
We are shifting to an economy of individuals. Independent, entrepreneurial people are creating value by collaborating closely with many others, and building their reputations and networks.

Work opportunities and pay are being polarized, with growth in both low and high-skill jobs but the middle hollowed out. The social risks are immense and we must do everything we can to push back against this trend.

The best performing organisations will be configured as networks, with internal markets for work, extensive use of social technologies, and value creation that transcends the company and spans many external communities.

This leads us to education as the heart of the future of work, with free, openly available resources and peer learning networks helping us to learn continuously and create a prosperous future of work for all.

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Prezi version for the EuroCIO conference, June 21, 2013 in Nice, France:

DRIVERS
EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES
Bandwidth
Processing power
Storage
Mobility
Interfaces

SOCIAL EXPECTATIONS
Excellence
Opportunity
Flexibility
Openness
Beauty

IT FUNCTION
DEMANDS
Security & continuity
User power
Responsiveness
Budget constraints
Environmental efficiency

TECHNOLOGY THEMES
Cloud
Big data
Mobile
Social media
Consumerization

KEY ROLES
Advisor to business
Facilitating solutions
Internal & external integration
Transforming infrastructure
User education

OPPORTUNITIES
Decision-oriented analytics
API-enabled enterprise
Integration with marketing
User app development
Reconfigurable processes

ROLE OF CIO
CAPABILITIES
Visionary leadership
Entrepreneurial mindset
Managing vendor networks
Supporting business ecosystems
Workforce change

ENABLERS
Governance for transformation
CIO role redefinition
Enterprise-wide IT policies
Executive & board education
External focus

VALUE
Better business decisions
Competitive differentiation
Driver of business innovation
Future-aware strategy
Enabler of agility