This recommendation sounds reasonable. I do that.

Yet those words mark deep divides in society.

An article in New York Times today They Did Their Own ‘Research.’ Now What? examines the now-powerful phenomenon of DYOR.

“DYOR” is shorthand for “do your own research,” a phrase that, on its face, amounts to excellent if obvious advice — a reminder to stay informed and vigilant against groupthink.

But in the context of a broad collapse of trust in institutions and the experts who speak for them, it has come to mean something more specific. A common refrain in battles about Covid-19 and vaccination, politics and conspiracy theories, parenting, drugs, food, stock trading and media, it signals not just a rejection of authority but often trust in another kind.

The words imply a fundamental distrust in authority, and thus a shift to complete self-reliance. In the case of crypto, where there may be rewards but there are definitely massive risks, you should want to rely on your own judgment rather than someone else’s, who might be paid for their endorsement or simply be a fool.

In the case of vaccines, for example, doing your own research implies assessing a limited selection of scientific evidence, usually without substantial contextual knowledge. We certainly shouldn’t always blindly follow what we are told. Yet not adhering to medical guidance implies a massive level of distrust in the intentions more than the competence of medical experts.

The choice we all face is the domains we choose to do our own research, and those where we trust experts sufficiently to defer to a perceived consensus.

How this plays out will be a fundamental factor in shaping our future society.

Image: Sergey Zolkin

At the time I wrote about the reasons for launching the publication, including simply that it is a very important topic for us all to explore, given the technologies we develop are shaping who we are in a multitude of fundamental ways.

As the publication has progressed I have realized even more how critical this issue is. We published a summary Future of Sex Report to distill the key ideas and their implications.

Just over two years ago I was introduced to Bryony Cole, as it happens meeting her the day after she had registered the domain for her excellent podcast Future of Sex, with the series and her work since gaining global attention.

Bryony’s energy has crystallized into two amazing events in Sydney over the coming week.

Australia’s First Sextech Hackathon is on next weekend March 23-25, bringing together people to create solutions to issues relating to sexuality through technology. The many prizes include a return flight to Paris to the SexTechLab and the opportunity to participate in France’s Sextech Hackathon.

Bryony and I are also collaborating to run Future of Sex Salon next Monday evening immediately after the hackathon, taking advantage of the international talent who are visiting Sydney for the Sextech Hackathon, including Polly Rodriguez, CEO of female-first positive sex retailer Unbound and co-founder of Women in Sextech, and Mal Harrison, Founder of the Center for Erotic Intelligence, both here from New York.

For those unable to dedicate a weekend to the hackathon the Future of Sex Salon will in a couple of hours provide great insights into the future of sex and what we can do to make it a positive future for all of us.

I hope to see you at one of the events!

The group was the first to get a run-through of my new concept framework Vectors of Disruption, shown below, which I used to introduce and frame the rest of my presentation.

Click on the image for the full-size pdf

Some brief thoughts on the framework:

The first comment is that I – as many others – am not a fan of the word ‘disruption’, which has lost much of its meaning through misuse and overuse in recent years. However I cannot find a better word for what is meant here. I’m very open to other suggestions!

Overall the intent of the framework is to distinguish between the different layers that are driving disruption, from the underlying forces, through the high-impact developments and finally key structural shifts. These are often confused, making the mechanisms – or vectors – of disruption far harder to understand.

The framework is of course immensely simplified. There are many other elements that could have been included, such as demographics, however many of these will play out over a longer period.

Underlying Forces

The most common focus is on Information technologies, with past future exponential growth in Data, Processing, and Connectivity, which a long runway yet for these trends. Advancing Interface technologies are also critical in giving people far deeper engagement to information.

Technologies in other domains, including Materials, Health and Energy are also impacting not just these industries, but many others, including construction, infrastructure, manufacturing and transport.

Expectations are continuing to rise on every front. Societal expectations, notably of sustainability and accountability, seem to be shifting into higher gears. Customers are demanding powerful experiences and customization. Another important force is that of shifting Investor expectations, who not only expect consistent growth, but also scalability and constant renewal.

High-impact developments

Here we can catalog the array of technology buzzwords that soak through almost every business presentation you are likely to see this year, such as AI, Robotics, Big Data and VR. While these developments are hyped, they individually are likely to have a massive impact on business and society, and even more when they are combined. However there are also important non-technological developments, including Power to the individual and active Capital reallocation by investors.

Structural shifts

While it is bold to point to only two fundamental structural shifts in the economy, I believe they will be responsible for the majority of structural change in coming years.
Automation in manufacturing has already significantly played out, however we are really just at the beginning of the impact of automation – as the application of AI and robotics in a work context – on not just almost all job roles, but how organizations function.
Platforms are the fundamental mechanism underlying the network economy. Beyond the evident rise of marketplaces in transport, accommodation, work, and many other domains, platforms also encompass blockchain and crypto-currencies, open innovation structures, and new models of reintermediation.

Disruption

It is clear that these forces, developments and shifts mean that existing Business models are unlikely to be sustainable without changes, sometimes evolutionary, sometimes revolutionary. However we also need to focus on other domains of disruption, including Organizational structures, Urban structure, Education and the Role of Government. Perhaps most importantly there is potentially massive disruption to existing Social structures. Understanding and shaping this in positive directions – to the degree possible – is everyone’s responsibility.

Of course this framework only looks at the vectors and structure of disruption, not the responses or solutions. I will be creating other frameworks soon that focus on what we need to do to create successful outcomes in a disrupted world.

As always this framework is released as a Beta v1, not intended to be final, but a first attempt that will be refined over time if useful. So please let me know your comments, ideas, and constructive criticism so that can be incorporate into subsequent versions.

Watch the segment below.

Some of the highlights from our conversation (plus some more detail):

Virtual reality dating
Virtual reality social networks such as AltspaceVR or Bigscreen – and probably Facebook in some form before long – are likely to be far more engaging than our current text-based platforms, so people are more likely to encounter people they are attracted to and want to meet in the real world. First dates in VR will be easier, more convenient and safer, allowing us to interact in a meaningful way with more potential partners before we follow up with a ‘real’ date. The reality show Virtually Dating entertainingly shows people on first dates in VR, most of whom agree to meet for a physical world date afterwards.

AI wingmen
Machine learning algorithms, given sufficient data, can work out what will and will not best achieve their defined objectives. While AI has been used to improve results on dating apps such as Tinder, this will go further to recommending people on where to meet, what to wear and what to say on your dates, depending on the personality profile of your date. We may see earpieces being used to suggest to people what they should say in their conversation to get the desired response, in a modern equivalent of Cyrano de Bergerac or Roxanne.

DNA compability
While there is not scientific consensus, studies appear to show that people are attracted to those with compatible DNA. On that basis GenePartner and more recently Pheramor use DNA testing to match customers with dates who have ‘compatible’ DNA.

Facial recognition
Badoo and Dating.ai allow people to upload photos of their celebrity crush – or perhaps their ex – to find singles near them who look like those they are attracted to. Going further, in Russia Facefind accesses the facial database of Vkontakte – Russia’s largest social network – to identify the name and profile of people you see in the street or a bar and like the look of.

A lot of this can sound pretty dystopian, and arguably much of it is. However some of the new dating technologies may help bring together people who would otherwise be alone. Our attitude to these technologies is critical, as we’ve already seen with the abuse as well as use of mobile dating apps over the last years.

Certainly we can be sure this is just the tip of the iceberg in the dating technologies that will emerge in coming years as we relentlessly seek romance.

Image: Virtually Dating

These themes were explored by leading futurist Ross Dawson in his keynote at the 2016 Ericsson Services Forum in Mumbai. Dawson’s talk related to the event theme of “Turning Wants into Wows” by discussing how organizations can create value in a connected world through harnessing the power of networks, consumer expectations, integrated systems, and unique branding. The full keynote is shown in the video below.

Here are four key insights drawn from Dawson’s keynote at the forum.

1. Networks are driving change and transforming the structure of the economy

Today, all layers of our lives are becoming intricately networked, changing the ways in which value is created. As Dawson told the forum, we have shifted to a society in which “the unit of value creation in the economy is now the individual, as they are connected, as they are able to share and create value”. Consequently, he asserted,

“The network is the birth of the global brain: we are collectively becoming something beyond ourselves.”

What does this mean for organizations? Firstly, that there is an explosion of possibility and opportunity as more and more of the things around us become connected. From the cloud to crowdsourcing to the Internet of Things, a social trend towards openness is shaping technology, which is in turn reshaping social attitudes. This cycle is fuelling a networked economy in which scale-free networks are growing, creating winners and losers.

Winners such as Uber and Airbnb exemplify the power of crowd sharing and how “social change is as vast as technological change”, like Dawson said at the forum. As a result of social change, organizations are grappling with rapidly changing consumer expectations, affecting how they understand and approach innovation, business structures and strategy.

2. Consumers expect more on every front

Fuelled by the vast possibilities of technology, “Our expectations for everything are going forwards, not backwards,” said Dawson. “We expect more on every front.” Here are some of the points he raised about consumer expectations:

We expect immediacy. In 1998, with dial-up Internet, you could download a webpage in approximately one minute. In 2017, ten seconds is too slow for most of us to wait.

We expect to participate. The pervasiveness of social media has put consumers “inside” and behind information as sharers and co-creators, critics and influencers, empowered in a networked economy.

We expect choice. We subject our demands for features such as speed, functionality, price and efficiency to intense comparisons both before and after purchasing.

We expect beauty. Even enterprise technology is now commonly scrutinized for the beauty of its user interfaces.

We expect world-class products and services. Our standards for quality are on the rise, driven by our knowledge of the competition, what other people are receiving, and our desire to have the best experience possible.

3. Aligning internal and external systems can drive value for customers

In order for organizations to fulfil and exceed consumer expectations, Dawson emphasizes:

“The way in which you interface with your customers, or the world at large, needs to absolutely mirror and be integrated with the way you work internally.”

This is vital because the dividing line between the outside and inside of an organization is blurring, partly due to open data and public expectations around transparency. Consequently, organizations should aim to be “extraordinarily well networked”, Dawson said, with their culture, connections and idea flow integrated in networks that drive value for external customers. This process can also promote efficiency and innovation, as well as clarify brand values and messaging.

4. Organizations must be unique to succeed

In a fast-paced world of widespread disruption, the least performing and best performing organizations are growing in divergence. Building on the ideas of Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson in Race Against the Machine, Dawson declared:

“All organizations are becoming more and more different…Now we are seeing the potential for the merging of the technology and culture and history of an organization to create something that is absolutely unique. And that is not just an opportunity, it is an imperative.”

A unique organization, in Dawson’s view, “cannot be copied by others however much they look at it, because they are not able to embody what it is”. In order to achieve this, leaders must help their organizations to transcend the boundaries and become as flexible as their environment. Otherwise, according to the Law of Requisite Variety, organizations and their employees will simply be buffeted by the winds of change, unable to take a lead and shape the world around them.

Therefore, in order to create a unique vision and vibrant future for their organizations, leaders should understand how networks impact the flow of innovation and value creation. As Dawson wrote in his book Living Networks, we have shifted to a society where, ultimately, “value is created by the network, not by the organization”. Those organizations that create value across systems and communities will be best equipped to benefit from—and contribute to—our connected world and its future.

Images: Adapted from Polychorosket and Khalid Albaih

There are many reasons why retro-tech is strong, though it is hardly a new phenomenon. Vinyl record sales are at a 25-year high, 1980s arcade games are keenly sought after in the original and through software emulation, and older but simpler models of a variety of technologies are selling well.

Beyond nostalgia

Beyond the obvious aspect of nostalgia in a fast-changing world, there are a number of other perspectives.

Older technologies can have greater functionality or better performance in a variety of ways, as is arguably the case with music on vinyl.

People who use older technology can be considered to be “technology-centered“, certainly not Luddites, but appreciating technology in a form that they feel closer to.

Certainly the reduced feature set of earlier technology can be a strong draw for some, particularly older people who don’t want to keep re-learning as new devices become available. While user interface design has in general certainly improved over the years, it is easier to use technology that does less.

Choice and control

In the big picture, the rise of retro-tech is a manifestation of the increasing choices we have, ultimately on the degree to which technology shapes our lives, and indeed who we are.

At the turn of the millenium many were yet to adopt mobile phones, saying they didn’t need them. Now a majority of those recognise the utility of mobility, and own mobile phones. However they can still exert a choice, in turning away from the latest features, and only using what they need.

We will see increasing social divides between those who adopt technology to the fullest degree, and those who hold back. The use of older technology is a way of people exerting choice, and feeling in greater control of their lives. We are going to see more of this in years to come.

Image: Steve Cadman

In the lead-up to the conference, an article Healthcare 2020: what will the future of healthcare look like in Australia? draws on an interview with me to explore this space. Below are just a few excerpted quotes from the extensive interview with me:

On big data and data sharing

“One of the things that is critical not just in the health industry but more broadly, is the ability to find and share data more effectively as an industry.

One of the major challenges the healthcare sector faces in achieving this, is privacy, both from a regulatory and individual perspective and the attitudes towards how information is shared. An education process is needed to show the value of sharing personal data, as well as providing the structures to be able to share data using appropriate tagging or classification of data.

“If you think about data from the big picture or the potential of the sharing of individual genetic data more broadly, this could lead relatively swiftly to a transformation in healthcare efficiency. While there still might be reluctance from people to share personal information about their health, it will be the individuals and organisations that will need to provide leadership to drive this effectively.

Because data sharing won’t happen by itself. There are so many blocks in terms of attitudes and regulations that are currently stopping data sharing.

There are also some layers of resistance in the technology infrastructure currently being used in Australian healthcare, especially when it comes to medical health records. These records are sometimes being designed to be held within organisations rather than to be shared in any way.

The format of these medicals needs to change to promote sharing and this requires leadership to establish and propagate these standards to drive value.

But this is an ongoing journey and for more than a decade we have already had people working on these issues and yet we don’t have a very good sate of medical data sharing at the moment. But at the same time, we need to look at how far we have come and find ways to improve, because we are going to have to move in a world of dramatically different levels of data availability.

In the future industry leadership is required and we need to look at data sharing as not just a sharing of personal health records, but as how we can use data to create more value for the community.”

On tele-health

“A big part of the future of healthcare will be tele-health and the ability to deliver healthcare remotely. We are already beginning to see more and more medical consultation with medical professionals done remotely, using everything from Skype through to richer services, which allows the doctor to instruct a patient to do particular tests on themselves.

This is part of a shift from responsive to predictive medicine. Instead of waiting until something goes wrong and then treating the patient, doctors will be able to anticipate when things might go wrong and take appropriate actions to prevent sickness. This transformation is partly based on data as well as connectivity.

Clearly there will be times when people need to physically go into hospitals, which will mean the most significant driver in healthcare globally will be cost. With an ageing population with increasing expectations on how to manage health, costs are rising. This could begin to be a massive social problem, so one of the things that will become important is the ability to minimise the amount which people have to go to hospital, both by pre-emptive care and being able to consult doctors remotely.”

On community care

“The vast amount of healthcare expenditure is currently going towards ongoing chronic conditions which can last a life time. A shift to community care in the future will provide an opportunity to not only reduce costs, but also shift the focus to patient centered care.

For example, community care will mean that people will be able to live in their homes much long. They will have the data and facilities to be able to monitor their own health. As we are also going to face an increasingly ageing population, community centered care will enable us to support elderly and unwell people to stay in their homes longer in much better conditions than they would today.

This can be achieved through simple robots in the house which through memory aids can help elderly people remember things, such as something as simple as where they left their glasses. These robots can also be supplemented by people in the community can drop by and support them. We have already seen the rise of mobile nurses and in the future the need for mobile nurses is going to be far greater.

Community centered care will improve people’s quality of life, because they are receiving care in their own home and have people around the support them. This will be a more structural and systematic shift that will be driven by cost and the quality of care that people seek. To a degree, it will also change the role of government in how they can best fulfill societal needs as efficiently as possible.”

For additional insights on other aspects of the future of healthcare go to the conference website.

The impact of these powerful attitudinal shifts are playing out in the workforce and how organizations attract talent.

We are shifting as individuals and societies as younger people mature through an unprecedented environment. But what we are in the process of discovering is what is fundamental and unchanging about us, and what can change.

Older people have always prescribed patience. Today perhaps that is not the right approach.

Most importantly, I believe that broader societal shifts are not just generational, we are in the midst of a secular transformation of attitudes across all generations, young and old.

Click on the image to see a video of the segment:

In the segment I pointed to some of the broader trends shaping the future of work, as well as particular jobs that would be disappearing or growing.

REFEREES are an excellent example of the kind of work that is on the verge of being automated. Judgment and decision-making is required, however those decisions needs to be based on as full data as possible. Human referees can only have one view of events. While many sports are starting to allow computer data to be used, such as whether the ball has crossed the line in soccer, these are only in limited instances.

Of course judging whether there has been a foul is far less cut-and-dried. However multiple cameras on all action, combined with machine learning algorithms fed by thousands of examples of what does and does not constitute a foul, could probably already perform better than most human referees on the field. Sportspeople’s and fans’ willingness to embrace the new technology is another issue, however there are few who would dearly hang on to the flaws of human referees.

DESIGN is in a way the defining domain of the future, in shaping technology, products, and indeed everything in our world so it best suits humans. Design requires creativity, and even more it requires a deep understanding of what it is to be human, and how we want to experience the world. In the segment I used the example of emotional robot designers, those who design machines to interact with us on an emotional level.

While it sounds like a specialist role, in the broadest sense it will be a massive job sector. We need to design effective emotional engagement into the technologies we create. Design will be at the heart of the 21st century, and design work will grow massively, because it requires uniquely human capabilities to forge a human-centric world.

As a society we need to be thinking deeply about how automation will impact today’s and tomorrow’s jobs. Many jobs will disappear, yet there will massive demand for many domains of human talent.

Considering this we can shape our companies, educational institutions, and personal journeys to where prosperity lies.

Click on the image to view a video of the segment.

One of the questions I was asked was whether in a world, in which people are already obsessive about their looks and weight, it is a good thing to give them even more opportunities to monitor their bodies.

The thing is, technology is giving us all great power, and we need to learn to use them wisely.

I don’t believe it is feasible or desirable for technology companies to limit how much people can monitor themselves. That information can be used well as potentially poorly.

The rise of social media has proven how obsessive people can be. Overlaying on this detailed real-time personal data can create challenges.

Yet I see the only realistic solution is to provide the education and social context that mean people use personal data well. Some will use it very well. It is possible others will spiral out of control.

We will soon discover how we respond to being immersed in data about ourselves. Let us be aware that some people will need help to use that power wisely.