I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

My thinking on this was clarified and crystalized by reading David Deutsch’s seminal work “The Beginning of Infinity”, in which he lays out an extensive and powerful case for human knowledge and abilities being unbounded.

He argues that humans are “universal explainers” who have created and learned to use scientific principles to indefinitely improve our theories, knowledge, and understanding,

At any point our understanding is limited and incorrect, but by continuing to apply the same principles we will consistently and indefinitely advance our knowledge.

He writes:

The astrophysicist Martin Rees has speculated that somewhere in the universe ‘there could be life and intelligence out there in forms we can’t conceive. Just as a chimpanzee can’t understand quantum theory, it could be there are aspects of reality that are beyond the capacity of our brains.’ But that cannot be so. For if the ‘capacity’ in question is mere computational speed and amount of memory, then we can understand the aspects in question with the help of computers – just as we have understood the world for centuries with the help of pencil and paper. As Einstein remarked, ‘My pencil and I are more clever than I.’

In terms of computational repertoire, our computers – and brains – are already universal (see Chapter 6). But if the claim is that we may be qualitatively unable to understand what some other forms of intelligence can – if our disability cannot be remedied by mere automation – then this is just another claim that the world is not explicable. Indeed, it is tantamount to an appeal to the supernatural, with all the arbitrariness that is inherent in such appeals, for if we wanted to incorporate into our world view an imaginary realm explicable only to superhumans, we need never have bothered to abandon the myths of Persephone and her fellow deities.

So human reach is essentially the same as the reach of explanatory knowledge itself.

The track record of humanity, which in just the last few thousand years has grown from superstitions to understanding in great depth our Universe from sub-atomic particles to the structure of the cosmos, sitting on a planet in a far-flung galaxy, is testament to our ability to develop knowledge.

Indeed, the pace of (human) scientific progress and knowledge is not just fast, it is accelerating, by just about any measure you choose.

People compare the exponential technologies underlying AI with our finite cognition and conclude we will be left behind. This is so deeply flawed that I will address this in more detail in another post.

In short, humans are very clearly not static. We co-evolve with the technologies we have created, constantly extending the boundaries of what it means to be human.

It is possible that to keep pace we will need to augment ourselves with brain-computer interfaces and other cognitive amplification technologies. As I wrote in my 2002 book Living Networks,

the real issue is not whether humans will be replaced by machines, because at the same time as computing technology is progressing, people are merging with machines. If machines take over the world, we will be those machines.

Believing we’re doomed to be dwarfed by super-intelligent AI is essentially betting against humanity.

It is giving up. It is lacking faith in humanity. It’s a surrender to superstition, to the idea that there is something undefined and unknowable beyond our capacity to imagine or understand.

The essence of being human is this: We face and solve problems and we progress. The concept of things we cannot understand goes against everything that humans have demonstrated themselves to be.

In an era defined by the rapid rise of AI, it is crucial that we maintain faith in the human capacity for limitless growth and expansion. The unfolding story of our species is not one of succumbing to imagined limits but one of constantly redefining what is possible.

Our future is inevitably one of Humans + AI – our species amplified by the intelligences we have created.

We will not be subsidiary players in this union. Our ability to understand and grow and frame what this incredible pairing can achieve is unlimited.

At this point we have no solid evidence how this will turn out. It is your choice:

Believe humans are intrinsically limited and that we will be as cockroaches to superior intelligences.

Or bet on a species that is intelligent and adaptable enough to have created everything we have so far, and our ability to continue to progress and grow, harnessing the power of our inventions.

In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.

The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?

I have long said that ethics is a distinctly human capability and ever-more important as our actions shape the future of humanity. If AI can provide ethical guidance that is as good as human input, it is extremely valuable.

Yet it is, of course, not a substitute.

Advice is not the same as making choices. Our ethical decision-making can be enhanced through better advice, or access to advice.

Access to a professional ethicist may not always be available, but AI is readily accessible.

The principle of not entirely relying on advice from machines (or humans) remains crucial. Nevertheless, high-quality input is invaluable in shaping our thinking and choices, both as individuals and as a society.

From here we need to work out the role of AI in our ethical decision-making. Do we use it at all? Where do we draw on its input? How do we weight that?

From a bigger frame, given the import of our ethical decisions today, how do we use all available resources – including AI – to shape a better future?

While I was always familiar with the idea of Gaia and was aware that Lovelock’s ideas were controversial, I didn’t realise how solid his scientific grounding was, despite working largely outside the academic world.

In Novacene Lovelock proposes that we are entering a new era in which humans will inevitably be transcended by the ‘electronic’ intelligences that we create. The core message of the book is that he expects that the AI we generate to want to work with humans to maintain Gaia and thus our existence, since even the machines won’t survive a catastrophic collapse.

I don’t agree with all the ideas in the book; I certainly don’t believe it is inevitable that humans will be completely transcended for the imaginable future. However Lovelock’s underlying thinking and framing is not just original and provocative, it is valuable in always seeing us in the context of the system that sustains us.

Novacene is a short book, it doesn’t take long to read, and gives a very broad framing for both the planet and the coming rise of ‘hyperintelligence’. Recommended. 

All life is change: being born, growing, learning, maturing, dying, evolving.

Society is continually transforming: moving from the past to the future, building on our human history, creating new and unique manifestations of humanity.

Our world is morphing: the turning of the seasons, the movement of the continents, shifts in climate and flora and fauna, both natural and anthropogenic.

Some people prefer the ways things are, the known, even if change might lead to better things.

Others embrace the unknown for the possibilities it offers.

It is all in our attitude.

We can focus on the fact that a changing world means we cannot continue doing what we have always done, and will need to change ourselves.

But we can be sure of one thing.

As long as the universe is changing… there will be opportunities.

It seems as if the universe in which we are set is changing faster than ever, an outcome of our own making.

This means that there will be more opportunities than ever before.

Our first task is simply to look for and perceive just a fraction of the bounteous opportunities stemming from unrelenting change.

We must also acknowledge and respond to the potential problems of change, but these should not be our primary focus.

Even in change that initially seems overtly negative we can find opportunities, not just in business but in turning them to positive societal impact.

To see a possibility is the critical first step to realizing it.

Feel blessed to live in a time of extraordinary change.

Because it means we live amidst unpredecedented opportunity.

The scope of topics presented is of course very broad, but laying them out in this way helps me to frame what I am looking for and thinking about as we push forward into the future.

Below is the list of topics, though note that as shown in the diagram, the themes blend into one another, they are not distinct.

Humanity

Future of humanity
Collective intelligence
Future of democracy and government
Post-capitalism and future of society
Future of media
Future of work and education

Business

Future of organizations
Future of events
Collaborative value creation
Social enterprise
Parallel entrepreneurship
Innovation
Platforms and ecosystems
Network economy
Next phase of business

Technology

Enterprise technology
Bio/ energy/ materials tech
Human Computer Interfaces
VR/ AR/ XR/ extending reality
Artificial intelligence
Exponential technologies

Thinking

Futurist thinking
Foresight practices
Concept visualization
Thinking structures
Thriving on Overload
Frame of optimism and possibility

The chart on the left shows the actual growth in photovoltaic (PV) solar installations in black, compared to the annually updated forecasts from the World Energy Agency in color. Linear thinking prevails, while exponential factors are at play.

An insightful new report from the Oxford Martin School’s Institute for New Economic Thinking Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition takes a more realistic and empirical perspective on the likely trajectory for costs and uptake of renewable energy. The report concludes that:

“a greener, healthier and safer global energy system is also likely to be cheaper”

Going beyond the time-series analysis that has been characteristic of most of the institutional energy forecasts to date, the authors use a stochastic method that accounts for the learning curve in improving technologies, with the added advantage of providing more rigorous uncertainty ranges for the forecasts.

Below is the summary of their forecasts for a range of energy sources:

Source: Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

They then go on to examine a set of scenarios for faster and slower global transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy, taking into account these more realistic forecasts and their uncertainty ranges.

In short, there is not an economic cost or trade-off in shifting from current energy to renewable energy. Even not taking into account the massive benefits of reducing carbon emissions, it will be cheaper to shift faster to renewables.

Understanding this only needed taking into account the compounding returns of investing in research and deployment, which has been blindingly obvious over the years, and in stark contrast to the linear thinking that has driven the energy industry and politicians.

As author Bill McKibben writes about the report:

They note that all the forecasts over those years about how fast prices would drop were uniformly wrong, invariably underestimating by almost comic margins the drop in costs for renewable energy. This is a massive problem: “failing to appreciate cost improvement trajectories of renewables relative to fossil fuels not only leads to under-investment in critical emission reduction technologies, it also locks in higher cost energy infrastructure for decades to come.” That is, if economists don’t figure out that solar is going to get steadily cheaper, you’re going to waste big bucks building gas plants designed to last for decades.
…
The cost of fossil fuels is not falling; any technological learning curve for oil and gas is offset by the fact that we’ve already found the easy stuff, and now you must dig deeper. But the more solar and windpower you build, the more the price falls—because the price is only the cost of setting up the equipment, which we get better at all the time.

Let’s hope that this paper and the thinking behind start to have more sway among the decision-makers that will drive our energy and environmental future.

Of course this does not portend the end of COVID. This is underlined by recent data from Israel, where there are around 8000 cases daily, despite 78% of the population being double vaccinated.

Pandemic (from pan meaning ‘all’) is used to describe an epidemic that has spread across nations and sometimes the world. Endemic refers to diseases that may be widespread, but with relatively consistent numbers over extended periods.

As we move closer to the point where most of those who want to be vaccinated have been, for now just in developed countries, we will have to start considering ourselves past the pandemic phase, and into the endemic phase.

COVID isn’t going away

A recent survey of leading epidemiologists by the leading journal Nature suggests it is highly unlikely that coronavirus is ever completely vanquished, with almost 90% believing COVID will continue to circulate. A minority believe that it can be eliminated from some regions, but not across the world.

As the article explores in detail, there are substantial uncertainties in the current and long-term efficacy of our current vaccines, vaccine uptake, and other factors including contagion through animals, which has already been demonstrated.

Beyond lockdowns

Most countries in the developed world are living in various degrees of lockdown or restrictions. The impact on many businesses, not to mention the mental health of many, has been and continues to be brutal.

Clearly these measures cannot continue indefinitely. When we have done what we can by vaccinating most of the willing, we will have to consider the virus as endemic. There may still be pointed breakouts of the disease, but these will be punctuation marks in an ongoing state of living with COVID.

Disparate national responses and travel reopening

As we have already seen, there will continue to be a very wide spectrum of responses by governments, from laissez-faire to still continuing to go in and out of lockdowns as cases rise to minimize infections.

International travel will open up relatively freely between nations that have accepted that COVID is endemic, while some nations will long keep restrictions. Two weeks quarantine will minimize travel to some countries for a long time to come.

The divide between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated

Layering on top of the many deep political, economic, and social divides we are experiencing around the world, society will begin to be divided into those who are vaccinated and those who choose not to be.

In addition to the different levels of access to work, travel, entertainment and far more that many governments and some companies will mandate, the vaccinated will often not want to be around those who have not had the vaccine.

Divides within families and communities are already appearing and will often become more accentuated, with the potential for unfortunate escalation in division and conflict.

Evolving work and offices

The debates around whether and how to resume ‘normal’ office work and hours will continue.

Some companies will continue to strive to resume work as it was before, while others will soon establish relatively stable configurations of hybrid work between home, office, and third spaces that can adjust depending on the current degree of restrictions and caution.

Regular vaccinations

Scientists are still gathering data, however the latest evidence from Israel suggests that vaccines will need to be renewed, either because their efficacy degrades, or because new variants make them less effective.

Many have compared COVID in its possible endemic form to flu: highly transmissible, never eradicated, and evolving from season. A key difference is in its severity and mortality rate, and potential long-lasting effects.

The need for human touch

Humans are highly social animals, who need to be around others, and benefit immensely from the touch of others, be it in a handshake, cheek kiss, hug, or on occasion more.

There is a danger that in a world of endemic COVID some, or even many, will allow their fears of infection to limit their social engagement, particularly with strangers. We may need to develop new behaviors that allow us contact while minimizing risk.

Learning to live with COVID

Almost everyone has been impacted by COVID, some with deaths in the family, many with businesses or livelihoods lost, others with the emotional impact of isolation and lack of certainty.

Acknowledging COVID as a likely ongoing factor in our lives will require still more adjustment. The shape of life amid endemic COVID is not yet clear, but we can begin to get some sense of what it will be like. We will need to learn to live our lives to the fullest within its constraints.

The piece quotes me on cars and parking:

Some house-hunting friends recently warned me off looking at properties with off-street parking, explaining that autonomous cars will become the norm and car parks will be obsolete. Having just paid a motza for a house with a car spot, I nearly choked on my tea. But futurist Ross Dawson agrees. He says autonomous cars will negate the need for car parks in the future, “I would say car parks are probably, and hopefully, one of the things which we’ll look back at as an extraordinary waste, which will seem mind-boggling in the future”.

The idea is that self-driving cars will be rented rather than owned and won’t need parking spaces because they just … won’t park. Dawson says the shift to autonomous electric vehicles is inevitable and a much safer alternative: “The best autonomous vehicles are far better than the average human driver by a long shot.”

There are two ideas here:

One is that at some point we will inevitably be completely horrified that we allowed drunk, tired, distracted, and incompetent drivers on the roads, not to mention that even today few humans are usually safer drivers than autonomous vehicles. Recently there were 1.35 million people killed on the roads around the world last year, including over 200,000 deaths in each of China and India. It is the leading cause of nonnatural death for Americans, with 40,000 dying each year. And while we have eliminated lead in petrol, cars continue to spew fumes around our schools and living environments. These incredible costs will seem barbarian and horrific in years to come.

In addition, once we shift substantially to autonomous cars, we will need a fraction of the parking space we currently have. What useful can we do with the numerous car parks scattered throughout our cities? Imagine your streets with trees, nature, and parks instead of rows of cars on either side.

There are many other things we may well look back on in horror, as most of us do for smoking in restaurants and workplaces and on airplanes, buses, and trains, phenomena within memory for many of us.

Many of our carbon-emitting behaviors, including burning low-quality coal, petrol-fueled cars, and widespread deforestation, not to mention widespread opposition, let alone reluctance, to taking substantive measures to improve.

The extent of carnage of animals in feeding us will likely seem bemusing. Over 50 billion chickens, 1.5 billion pigs and half a billion sheep are slaughtered each year, too often in unsanitory conditions or at the culmination of miserable lives.

I suspect that we will look at our current education system in disbelief, once we can transition from the legacy of institutional indoctrination to nurturing childrens’ unique potential.

I do hope that we will look back on our structures for (supposedly) representational democracy with dismay, however that does depend on us creating a better future for democracy, which is by no means as given.

Undoubtedly there are many other currently accepted activities and social structures that we will look back at in horror.

What do you think they might be?

Today they released the 7th edition of their Global Trends report, examining the risks and challenges of the next 20 years.

Below I have selected some visual highlights from the 156 page report that distill some of key insights.

The full report is well worth reading. It pulls together many themes that I and other foresight professionals have been discussing for some time, in this case taking a fairly bleak perspective on the implications. 

The report examines the trends and forces summarized below, then presents five scenarios for 2040, which are better read in full in the report rather than in summary form. 

Structural forces

Demographics and human development

Slowing population growth and an ageing society, with almost all population growth from poorer regions, increasing pressure for migration. 

Environment

Climate change will impact every country but disproportionately developing countries, with instability from disagreement about carbon emission reductions and the rise of carbon mitigation technologies.

Economics

Trends including rising debt, complex trade, and employment disruption will shape global economics while governments experience reduced ability to deal with challenges. Asian economies will lead growth, with economic prosperity potentially mitigating problems.

Technology

The increasing pace of technological development could benefit many. Competition for technology supremacy could lead to hegemonies, though if they are applied more broadly could greatly assist developing countries.

Emerging dynamics

Societal

Many globally feel insecure, uncertain, and distrustful. As potentially transnational like-minded communities develop they can conflict with others, creating fault lines within nations, with everyone better equipped to agitate and demand more from governments.

State

Governments will face mounting pressure from empowered citizens, with a growing mismatch between expectations and what is delivered potentially spurring transformations in the nature of government.

International

No state will dominate in a world of flux, however the rivalry between US and China will shape every aspect of global affairs. A variety of intertwined forces means the risk of interstate conflict will rise.

In the slides below I have laid out 9 themes that I believe will be at the center of our world in 2021 and beyond.

2020 has pivoted us into a new era

The crucible of 2020 has transformed us, not into a “post-pandemic” future, but one which has accelerated and amplified many existing trends of the pre-2020 world, flipping us into a new era for humanity which we will forever see as forged by the intense fire of 2020.

Pandemic Pulse

Nations will cycle between opening and closing to combat contagion

The announcement of multiple COVID-19 vaccines has given hope to populations besieged by the virus, but coronavirus is highly unlikely to be fully vanquished for the foreseeable future, with delays in rollouts, many vaccine sceptics, and stiff containment measures in response to even limited outbreaks leading to an irregular rhythm in and out of lockdowns and optimism in cities and nations around the world.

Moreover, worrying new viruses have arisen regularly over the last decades and will continue to do so, even once COVID-19 is largely contained. The difference is our belated realization that any new pathogen could trigger another global pandemic, sparking drastic measures for any concerning new viruses.

One major and positive shift is that, after years of dire and prescient warnings from epidemiologists, we are far more prepared for the health crises that will inevitably happen in our intensely connected world.

“Although it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic might occur, its occurrence is considered inevitable.”
– Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030, World Health Organisation

42% of Americans and 13% of Australians say they will NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine.
– Gallup, October 2020; Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, November 2020

Being Well

The challenges of this year have intensified our focus on mental and physical wellbeing

The mental toll of this year impacted far more people than coronavirus itself, with the elderly, single, disadvantaged, and newly unemployed often struggling to deal with the isolation of lockdown and intense economic challenges.

The result is an increasing focus on wellness by nations, employers, communities, families, and individuals. Empathy has grown as many have experienced difficulties and grasped how hard it must be for many others. Health systems will be deeply strained, but we will help each other more.

The shift to healthier eating is moving apace, exemplified by the long-standing shift to vegan eating. Our shifting diet is being driven by increased awareness of the environmental costs of meat as well as the availability of far tastier plant-based foods, thanks in part to $3 billion venture capital investment this year into improved meat alternatives.

U.S. plant-based sales are growing 14 times faster than total food sales.
– Good Food Institute, September 2020

41% of Americans reported an adverse health mental condition related to COVID-19
– Center for Disease Control and Prevention, June 2020

Efficiency to Resilience

We will prioritize independence, local production, and community

While COVID-19 has accelerated many existing trends, it has turned around the longstanding drive to hyper-efficiency, which assumed that goods could be transported whenever needed. When borders can be closed in an instant, the equation entirely changes, with resilience to shocks the highest priority.

Specialist manufacturing is returning onshore, local 3D printing and assembly is rising, the demand for quality local food production is soaring, and nations are focusing on food and energy independence.

Inevitably major new crises will emerge in coming years, from climate, disease, terrorism, or conflict. Our collective resilience will depend deeply on our sense of community, with those regions prioritizing local-first economies, community health and aged care, and civic innovation initiatives far better positioned to respond to adversity.

69% of U.S. manufacturing and industrial companies “are likely to bring manufacturing production and sourcing back to North America”.
– Thomas, August 2020

In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, 32% of Americans gave directly and 48% gave indirectly by supporting local community.
– Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, Indiana University

Work Reconfigured

Hybrid working models will boost the economy of individuals

After the enforced shift to remote work in 2020, few organizations will ever resume work as we knew it, with most gradually adopting ‘hybrid’ models in which staff come to the office when useful but frequently work from home or local ‘third spaces’ that allow social connections and a change of scenery. Those companies that provide greater flexibility and better remote conditions will attract the most talented and strongly outperform.

Organizations and individuals are learning how to excel at virtual work, including enabling serendipitous connections with colleagues, balancing work and home lives, ensuring worker privacy, and using an array new technologies including 5G and virtual reality to transcend location.

The shift to flexible work is contributing to the rise of the ‘economy of individuals’, in which not only classic gig workers such as drivers but also high-end professionals shift from full-time employment to independent work, allowing them to relocate at choice. Workers with traditional full-time jobs will become a minority.

87% of office workers want the ability to choose whether to work from home or office, and manage their hours, even when offices open up.
– Cisco Workforce of the Future Survey, September 2020

In December 2020 Greece established a digital nomad visa that seeks to attract remote workers by halving their income tax.

Vectors of Travel

International flight paths and confidence will resume one step at a time

International travel has defined our age, with 4.5 billion people flying in 2019, almost triple the number in 2000. In 2020 the travel lust of many executives, families, and adventurers has been thwarted, leading to massive pent-up demand to fly abroad. Yet it will be a slow and bumpy road back.

Initially travel bubbles between nations or regions will open up (and then sometimes close down again), often vetted by health passports, pre-boarding checks, and digital vaccination records. The travel industry will reshape, with airlines merging, prices adjusting to ensure profitability, and new premium services for luxury tourists and business travelers.

Travel will go beyond our planet, with space tourism commencing for the wealthy, and the space ventures of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos intent on building massive industries beyond Earth including resource mining, moon bases, colonizing Mars, and as a by-product potentially enabling hypersonic travel, reducing the flight time between Sydney and New York to 4 hours.

International travel revenue in 2020 will be $191 billion, less than a third of revenue in 2019, with the airline industry losing $118 billion this year.
– International Air Transport Association

In 2020 three missions to Mars were launched: NASA’s Mars 2020, China National Space Administration’s Tianwen-1, and UAE’s Emirates Mars Mission, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX aims to send a Starship to Mars in 2024.

Transcending Polarization

We will strive to reverse heightened schisms in economies, societies, and politics

The escalating polarization of values, society, politics, and wealth over the last decade has been evident, with the network effects of our connected world contributing to both economic and social divisions. Across nations, both low-paid and high-paid jobs have grown, with the middle eviscerated, leaving an increasing gap between the haves and have-nots.

Social media has ended up dividing us more than bringing us together, leading to the mainstreaming of extremism in places. Most still believe in the principle of democracy but many disagree with how it is put into practice. There is an immense opportunity to evolve our democratic structures for a new era, starting by being open to debate and change.

The coming years will be defined largely by how successfully we can transcend these acute divisions. The pandemic swiftly reframed the discussion around “post-capitalism”, with many saying they support every citizen receiving a basic income. Business leaders will be increasingly vocal in espousing the importance of social impact as well as financial returns.

45% of Americans would support a Universal Basic Income, including 69% of those under 30.
– Pew Research Center

Globally, High Net Worth Individuals plan to allocate 46% of their portfolio to sustainable investing by 2021.
– CapGemini World Wealth Report 2020

Energy Flip

The inexorable shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy will accelerate

The pandemic grabbed attention away from climate change but it is shifting back, with 2020 one of the three hottest years on record, all in the last five years, extreme temperatures in the Arctic and Siberia, spiralling wildfires around the world, and unprecedented hurricane intensity.

Governments leaders globally are shifting from rhetoric to action on carbon reductions, including pressure on their peers. With energy production accounting for 72% of emissions, there is heightened impetus to move away from fossil fuels. However the market is already ahead, given that the cost of energy production from new renewable projects is far below that for traditional energy sources.

For the last 20 years every forecast of the pace of the shift to renewable energy has been too conservative. The balance has tipped and we are swiftly moving to a renewable-first energy economy in which many households produce as well as consume energy.

Renewable energy accounts for almost 90% of the increase in total power capacity globally in 2020.
– International Energy Agency

Global sales of electric vehicles in October 2020 were 127% higher than a year before, with one in 20 cars sold worldwide now renewable.
– InsideEVs

Human Machine Symbiosis

We will design work and education so AI and people create value together

There continues to be remarkable progress in artificial intelligence, with recent landmarks including Google’s DeepMind solving protein folding with potentially massive implications for drug discovery and healthcare, and OpenAI’s GPT-3 able to write convincing and sometimes compelling articles.

The extraordinary and rising capabilities of AI threaten intense disruption to human work. However the next years will be framed by leading companies recognizing the unique human capabilities of expertise, creativity, relationships, and ethics, and designing work so that AI and humans are a system, tapping each’s distinctive competences to create something greater than each can achieve on their own.

Education will be at the heart of the future for us all, and provides an incredible opportunity for human-machine collaboration. Personalized lessons tailored to individual learning styles, interests, hobbies, and social environment will help everyone learn in the way best suited to them. Yet demand for talented teachers will soar to frame, engage, inspire, and connect, working with AI to make children and adults alike ready for tomorrow.

“By 2025, 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms.”
– Future of Jobs Report 2020, World Economic Forum

“AI should benefit people and the planet by driving inclusive growth, sustainable development and well-being.”
– OECD AI Principles, adopted by 42 countries

Accelerated Evolution

Humans will evolve faster than at any time in human history

Gene editing and biohacking now allow us to alter the DNA, not just of human embryos, but also of grown adults. The first applications are of course in helping those with genetic disorders, but it is inevitable that parents will seek to improve the intelligence, beauty, and athleticism of their children.

It is not just volitional control of our genes that is shaping us, but also our environment. Famous visionary Marshall McLuhan presciently noted that “we shape our tools, then our tools shape us”. Neuroplasticity means our brains literally change depending on their environment, with pervasive digital screens molding our mental processes, and researchers observing ‘cognitive offloading’ of our thinking processes to technology.

Humankind’s eternal desire for immortality may never be achieved, but recent advances in multiple domains suggest that cancer treatments are within reach, and we may not just stop but reverse the ageing process, raising pointed issues about who gets access to these technologies.

19% of Americans want to live forever, while an additional 42% want to live longer than normal but not forever.
– YouGov

UK scientists edited the genes of a human embryo in 2017. A recent UK law allows babies to incorporate the DNA from three parents.