My company Advanced Human Technologies has recently launched the website Future of Sex (futureofsex.net), which explores the intersection of technology and human sexuality.
A few people have been surprised to see us launch this site, as it is a little different from the topics we usually cover. Here is the background and reasons why we’ve launched the site.
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I spoke last night at the Gallery of Modern Art in Brisbane, to speak at the last of their GoMA Talks on the 21st century which accompany their current exhibit of 21st century art. The topic was the future of the 21st century, with panellists:
– Antony Funnell, presenter of ABC Radio National’s Future Tense
– Tony Albert, artist
– Ross Dawson, futurist
– Dr Melissa Gregg, Senior Lecturer in Department of Gender and Cultural Studies at Sydney University and author of Work’s Intimacy
– Tim Longhurst, futurist
Here is the video of the full session:
In the early 1990s I worked for several years in Japan as a financial and business journalist. The first article I ever wrote beyond the world of business was on an issue that I felt was very important: the dangers of Japan’s nuclear program.
I have been searching for the article for the last week, and eventually found it last night. The article (embedded and full text below) was published on June 30, 1992 in The Bulletin, at the time Australia’s leading newsweekly magazine.
The letters to the editor from senior nuclear industry figures in response to my article scoffed at what they said was an alarmist and inaccurate portrayal. The facts are:
* The Monju reactor I described went operational in April 1994, and was shut down in December 1995 after a sodium leak caused a major fire, with a major scandal emerging on the attempted cover-up by the government. It took 14 years before it was operational again, in May 2010.
* In 1999 fuel reprocessing workers didn’t follow safety procedures, leading to 2 deaths and hundreds being exposed to radiation.
* A multitude of other problems and cover-ups have led to the continuing post-earthquake nuclear crisis.
* Rokkasho, which I also wrote about in the article, is still not fully operational, and was forced onto back-up generators after the earthquake. There are reportedly 3,000 tons of radioactive spent nuclear fuel at the facility. Two years ago officials said that earthquakes weren’t a problem even thought the plant is built on a fault line, as the facility could withstand a 6.9 shock (the recent earthquake was 8.9).
In working as a futurist, I and others check what I have said in the past against what actually happens. In this case I wish I had been wrong.
I am writing this in the air over the Rockies, flying back from a scenario planning workshop I ran for a client yesterday.
Over the last dozen years that I have been running scenario planning projects I have observed that corporate interest in scenario planning is cyclical. The time horizons that executives think in tend to be driven by the health of their business, the recency of prominent unanticipated events such as the global financial crisis or Middle East upheaval, and visibility of challenges to their business model.
In my experience interest in scenario planning is picking up strongly, reflecting a variety of recent surprises of various kinds, as well as a general feeling of prosperity that permits budgets for the like of scenario projects.
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Almost five years ago now I wrote a post titled Being in two places at the same time which described how Professor Ishiguro, a Japanese roboticist, had created a robot replica of himself so he could give lectures at his university without enduring the commute from his home.
The robot, named Geminoid HI-1 to emphasize that it was his twin, mimicked his expressions and movements. Having this doppelganger meant that he could send it (or indeed multiple versions) out to represent him in the world.
After a sequence of other Geminoids, the state of the art has become startlingly good. The following videos show Geminoid DK, which is the twin of Associate Professor Henrik Scharfe of Denmark’s Aalborg University, designed in collaboration with Professor Ishiguro. Check out the videos.
Excerpt from the list of ExaTrends of the 2010s:
Across communities, nations, and the world, there is a keen risk of increasing separation between those who have access to technology, tools, and basic needs, and those who do not. This is not inevitable. However it will require concerted action around the world to avoid an increasing schism between us.
See the full 3 page framework including the Map of the Decade, full descriptions of the ExaTrends of the Decade, and the 11 themes of the Zeitgeist of 2011 by clicking on the image:
The internet can be characterized very simply. Billions of people are looking for interesting and useful information, and millions of companies are trying to make money by people finding their content, through search engines and increasingly on social media.
This has led to the rise of companies such as Demand Media, which last week listed on New York Stock Exchange to be valued at $1.5 billion, more than the New York Times. Demand Media and its peers such as Associated Content, now owned by Yahoo!, use low-cost writers and sophisticated algorithms to create massive amounts of content tailored to generate revenue from search traffic.
There are also many writing brokers such as TextBroker and The Content Authority that help smaller companies that need web content to improve their search rankings to get copy written, at rates as low as 1.2 cents a word.
I have written about the proliferation of crap content and how search is evolving to deal with the rise of low-quality content. The latest iteration in Google’s search algorithms explicitly address duplicate content. The quest for original content to feed the search engines continues.
The obvious next step is to automate copywriting, further improving the cost-revenue equation for those seeking to attract search traffic.
Excerpt from the list of ExaTrends of the 2010s:
The way we use energy will change faster than ever before in human history. Renewable energy sources, electric cars, and strict energy accounting, driven in part by carbon taxes on fossil fuels, will transform transportation and large chunks of the economy, faster than we currently imagine.
See the full 3 page framework including the Map of the Decade, full descriptions of the ExaTrends of the Decade, and the 11 themes of the Zeitgeist of 2011 by clicking on the image:
Our recently launch Map of the Decade triptych comprised three parts: the Map of the Decade, details on the ExaTrends of the Decade, and the 11 themes of the Zeitgeist for 2011.
I think may have been a mistake to put the Map of the Decade and Zeitgeist themes in the one document, as many only see the front page and don’t get to the Zeitgeist themes, and they come from quite different perspectives (1 year as against 10 years). As such, I’ve taken out the Zeitgeist themes here, with the image and full text below. Click on the image to download the complete pdf – go to page 3 for descriptions of the Zeitgeist themes.
ZEITGEIST:2011
1. Networked or Not?
We are all facing a fundamental choice that will shape our lives. Many dive headlong into a world of always-on connection, open social networks, and oversharing. A few cry halt and choose to live only in the old world of tight-knit personal communication. The result is a divided society.
Excerpt from the list of ExaTrends of the 2010s:
Many developed nations will start hitting the wall in their ability to support their elderly. The contrast with the rapid growth of developing nations will bring into focus the turn in economic fortunes. The inevitable result is mass migration, licit or illicit.
See the full 3 page framework including the Map of the Decade, full descriptions of the ExaTrends of the Decade, and the 11 themes of the Zeitgeist of 2011 by clicking on the image:
