Comments on: The best visuals to explain the Singularity to senior executives

By: Ross Dawson

Ross Dawson — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 05:03:53 +0000

Mark Fowler (@nzchook) sent me a link to the presentation slides that Ray Kurzweil used to open Singularity University - this is very much the sort of thing I was looking for... :-) https://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/TEDU09/ (this opens the PPT deck)

By: Rouge

Rouge — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 23:49:26 +0000

@Ian Smth
you do know Kurzweil’s prediction for the singularity is actually more conservative than Vinge’s right?
Kurzweil = 2045 (give or take a few years either way, can’t find the quote where he makes this caveat)
Vinge = “I’ll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.”

By: Ross Dawson

Ross Dawson — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 19:57:06 +0000

Interesting question re using log graphs – I think most get it though the exponential plot can be more powerful.
I think it probably is a bit much to plot an exponential line against a logarithmic scale Chris – the assumptions and extrapolations in this are too heroic for most to buy – though it’s otherwise a good graphic.
I agree Kurzweil isn’t considered a kook – certainly out there but he has the credentials and always supports his case with analysis. SingularityU is very interesting – I caught up with the Exec Dir Salim Ismail recently at a presentation I did in SF on Future of the Enterprise.

By: Chris O

Chris O — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 19:39:28 +0000

You left out the best graph in The Singularity is Near, in my opinion. Similar to the second graph you’ve shown, it goes on to estimate that computing power will eventually reach not only the power of a single human brain, but of every human brain.
It’s exactly what you’re looking for dude, and Kurzweil has already made it. It’s hands down the best in the book.
Check it out: https://tinyurl.com/ndngp9
Hope that helps!
Also, Kurzweil is not considered a kook. Singularity University isn’t on NASA’s campus and funded by Google and X-Prize for nothing, and he wouldn’t be its chancellor if he was considered a kook. http://www.singularityu.org

By: Ian Smith

Ian Smith — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 08:01:39 +0000

I’d suggest any graph which uses a logarithmic scale is a non-starter for non-german senior execs. Orders of magnitude; just about workable though.
Important concepts to get across is the steady progression in cheap complexity ($1000’s worth say), the relationship to Moore’s law (which they do know about), and the generational change in what’s possible (making obsolete what they know, change the rules every decade or two).
Only then can you get on to shortening times for that generational change and thus exponential rise and the singularity itself.
I’d always avoid mentioning Kurzweil since he’s basically a kook in these terms. Go with Vinge and a more considered viewpoint.