Interview: The future of media and entertainment in 2020
Today’s issue of The Australian has a special section on the media industry in 2020, to coincide with the Australian government’s 2020 Summit to be held this weekend. I was interviewed for a feature article titled Watch this space as sector goes on move (together with a nice pic of me in the print edition). The article follows:
AUSTRALIANS will double their spending on media and other entertainment by 2020 as the proportion of people’s income spent on “weightless” products and services increases, according to futurist Ross Dawson.
Mr Dawson predicted the media and entertainment industry would double in size during the next 12 years and have a 60per cent larger share of the global economy than at present.
“One of the things (that) is going to grow rapidly is the way we consume media … when we’re moving around,” Mr Dawson said. “The weight of goods produced in the global economy, while it doubles in size, will stay the same.”
Mr Dawson, chairman of the Future Exploration Network, which takes the pulse of the global industry in an annual study, said the media would offer “infinite choice” for consumers by 2020.
In a wide-ranging interview about the changing media landscape ahead of the Government’s 2020 Summit, he predicted:
* Convergence in home entertainment would lead to one screen in each room through which computer games, video, audio and information would bepiped.
* Much of that information would be available on demand.
* A growing proportion of media revenue would be generated by advertising, as opposed to paid subscriptions. But the jury was still out on the form that advertising would take.
“One of the fundamental questions is about the personalisation or customisation of advertising and of media,” Mr Dawson said.
“Advertising can be presented to us based on our own preferences, behaviours and interests.
“It is possible that as a society we will see that there is value in this or it is possible that as a society we would start to reject that (due to privacy concerns). I think the first one is the more likely route.”
While fragmentation of media businesses would continue, Australian media companies were likely to continue to enjoy a relatively privileged position.
“So far, the Australian large media companies have been more successful than their peers in other major media markets (in retaining market share compared with new rivals). That will be increasingly challenged.”
Other developments would include the migration of newspapers to an electronic format and growth of “advertising aggregators” such as Google.
“Google, if it continues on its current (path), is likely to play a very large role, not just in online advertising but increasingly in other sectors,” Mr Dawson said.
“Half of Google’s advertising isn’t on the Google website, it’s on other people’s websites, and it also places advertising on television, radio and in newspapers.”
Other companies well-placed for the future included Telstra, Optus and Vodafone (which could control the devices on which people consumed media, as well as relationships with those consumers) and Macquarie Media Group, which would benefit from its local media strategy.
But the future of digital free-to-air TV was fuzzy.
“We’re unlikely to have many more new digital channels,” Mr Dawson said. “It’s counter-intuitive in terms of the actual cost of running a TV station.”
