The article opens:

Virtual firms, legal outsourcing. It’s the future, and it’s coming to your firm now. Futurist and author Ross Dawson shares his thoughts on where the legal industry is heading.

The impact of connectivity, particularly through artificial intelligence and globalisation, has meant greater choice and control in deciding how legal services are carried out. Future changes will go further – influencing the traditional model of how a firm’s services are structured and delivered, according to Ross Dawson, futurist and author of The Seven MegaTrends of Professional Services.

The article later continues by describing :

Dawson offers a range of future scenarios for the traditional law firm faced with increasing competition from this offshore legal process outsourcing (LPO). First, they can wave their business goodbye as their competitors, who offer this cheap and efficient alternative, undercut their service.

“If you are a large firm with high overheads, you can’t compete on price,” he says.

Or firms can make the most of the opportunity to specialise in their chosen area of law, leaving the process-oriented work to their competitors and the LPO service providers. The final option is to embrace this external service and offer clients ‘the lot’. Law firms can choose to draw on this cheaper LPO resource to complement the firm’s full service, one-stop shop. Firms then manage both the client’s complex and mundane work – setting the firm’s best lawyers onto the complex work and outsourcing the rest.

It goes on to delve into the issue of where and how the most talented lawyers want to work:

The element that’s critical to this amalgam is the talent. Understandably, the traditional staff model is also facing a shaky future. Young lawyers have classically accepted terrible hours and a high-pressure work environment in the hierarchical firm structure in exchange for the gains of reaching partner status. In law, it’s seen as the price you pay. The problem with the traditional model is that partner profits are dwindling due to margins being squeezed, as well as the impact of globalisation and competition.

“We are seeing an increasing flow of lawyers who don’t want to work under the traditional legal model.”

Dawson predicts that the best lawyers will increasingly choose to leave behind the hostile working environment – and join emerging virtual law firms.

That means in future, firms will need to work to fulfil both the needs of more demanding and price-driven clients, as well as appeal to a talent pool of lawyers who have more options than ever before. It augurs the end of the traditional staff model.

“There is a cycle where you need to attract the best people to charge the highest fees and attract the best clients. If you’re not able to attract people with the right pay and conditions, that cycle starts to break down. Although they have the big clients, the capabilities and the solid foundation, large law firms also have the legacy of the partnership structure, staff practices and overheads.

New industry structures will emerge including changing relationships between large and niche firms:

Dawson predicts that clients will start to shift how they purchase legal services, not necessarily depending on the large law firms as they have in the past. But he sees it as unlikely that large firms will crumble, at least in Australia.

“What we are beginning to see here is that big firms are managing to transform themselves. But we’re also seeing the rise of smaller niche legal firms that are very well positioned.”

Increasingly it’s these nimble firms that are better placed to adapt to the new paradigm. “For the clients, they’re able to provide a quality service at an attractive price.”

Social media-driven reputation will allow networks of legal expertise to emerge:

Looking further into the crystal ball, Dawson confirms the role of social media in the legal landscape.

“All professional work will be determined by personal brands and presence that are significantly driven by social media, so these are critical capabilities for any lawyer in any firm.”

Finally, the big change for lawyers will be in how legal information is accessed. Dawson says that in the future he can see clients engaging an expert or broker to complement their online search for legal information.

“You’re not hiring a lawyer, per se. You need an expert as opposed to a search engine to say, ‘This is the most relevant reference. This is the info you need to consider.’ There is now also an opportunity for access to network experts who can engage clients in conversations and communities from which lawyers and their clients can discover the best information – a fundamental shift from the database aspect that has been so much of the legal information industry to date.”

My keynote on Embracing the Future looked at the broad trends shaping our world, and how they were shaping the world of education in particular. Peer learning is a fundamentally important trend today, describing how people learn increasingly from their peers rather than formal teachers. Indeed, the leading edge of any domain of study is driven by peers who share what they discover on the edges of their discipline.

One of the stories I told in my keynote was how a young Mexican man has been amply rewarded for his talent and his propensity to share, rather than formal education.

Image: Jordi Muñoz, Chris Anderson and Jon Callaghan of 3D Robotics Credit: Christopher Michel

The detailed story has been written up in Business Insider and other publications, but in short Wired magazine’s Editor-in-Chief Chris Anderson set up an online community DIY Drones to explore his passion, attracting over 60,00 enthusiasts.

One of the first participants was Jordi Muñoz, a 21 year-old Mexican in Tijuana, who was passionate – and extremely knowledgeable – about drones, helping push out the boundaries of what was possible.

“He was just ahead of us all,” Anderson recalls. “Nobody had grokked the whole picture the way he had.”

Without knowing anything about Muñoz other than his expertise, Anderson sent him money to develop his designs, and before long asked him to be his co-founder of his company 3D Robotics before he had met him. Formal qualifications were irrelevant. What mattered was his knowledge, and making that visible by sharing with others.

3D Robotics has recently raised an additional $64 million for a total of $99 million in funding.

While formal qualifications will still be of value for some time, those who are looking for the most talented will always know where to look: the open spaces where the best in the world are learning and sharing with their peers.

Over 400 senior news executives from 45 countries are gathering to gain insights into the leading edge and path forward for news organizations globally.

My keynote provides a highly positive perspective on the extraordinary opportunities for the news industry. I am currently refocusing on the future of news and media, and will be sharing a lot more on this topic during this year.

For now, here are the slides to my keynote. As always, note that my slides are designed to accompany my keynote and not to stand alone, and also contain many videos that do not show in the slides below. However they may still be of interest to people who are not attending my keynote.

There are and have been many influence ranking systems around. This one focuses on a particular group – keynote speakers – for whom online influence is particularly important, and brings together three measures: Klout, website traffic, and Twitter followers.

It is of course very easy to criticise any influence rankings mechanism, and we do not pretend this is by any means ‘accurate’, it is intended to be indicative and interesting. We have provided complete transparency by publishing the algorithm we use. The intention is to tweak and develop the algorithm over time. Let us know if you have suggestions on how to improve it!

At the time of writing this post I am in 23rd position, which I think is pretty decent given my illustrious peers. I suspect I will move down the list over time, as we have no doubt missed people who should be on the list. Please suggest additional speakers if you or anyone else are not on the list and you believe should be included. To be included people need to work primarily as a keynote speaker.

Let me know your thoughts!

]]> https://rossdawson.com/launch-keynote-speaker-influence-ranking-tracker/feed/ 0 https://rossdawson.com/concept-video-future-work/ https://rossdawson.com/concept-video-future-work/#respond Mon, 04 Aug 2014 12:07:42 +0000 https://rossdawson.com/?p=7096 A while ago at Future Exploration Network we created the Future of Work Framework to provide a high-level overview of how the world of work is shifting.

Over the past year I have used the framework extensively as a starting point for executive briefings and strategy workshops on the strategic implications of the rapidly changing world of work.

However the static visual can be hard to interpret on its own, so we have now created a short video that delves into and narrates the framework.

I hope you find the video useful, please feel free to share it or use it in your internal meetings. We will continue to evolve the framework over time.

They played this video, narrated by John Hurt, who starred in the film 1984. Apparently American audiences have thought this clip to be highly controversial, however it seems to provide a reasonable view of how things are.

Take Back Control from Respect Network on Vimeo.

The real drawcard for me and many others was that Doc Searls, co-author of the seminal book The Cluetrain Manifesto and originator of the concept of Vendor Relationship Management (VRM), has been deeply involved in the project and is speaking at each of the 4 global launch events for Respect Network.

The vision of individuals controlling their own data was clearly articulated by John Hagel and Jeffrey Rayport in a 1997 Harvard Business Review article The Coming Battle for Customer Information. Yet despite many initiatives since then seeking to bring this to life, none has achieved widespread success.

The Respect Network seems to have a very solid foundation. Founder Drummond Reed has co-chaired the committees for the OASIS XDI protocol that underlies the protected sharing of identity and relationship data, though he emphasizes that the legal infrastructure of agreements is in fact an even more important enabler.

The focus of the Respect Network global launch has been the “Login with Respect” button, which seeks to provide an alternative to the Facebook and other social network logins which enables users to have complete control of their data.

There is a one-time fee to join the Respect Network of US$25. My initial response to this was that this will inevitably limit the uptake of the network. Today’s major social networks have memberships in the hundreds of millions or beyond. To provide an alternative where individuals can expect to find their family and friends means there should be no barriers to entry.

As a counterpoint, Drummond noted that for many, paying for a social network gives people confidence that they are not “the product” that pays for the business. Drummond also changed his language to describe the upfront payment as a ‘crowdfunding’ mechanism, suggesting that at a certain point the network may become free to join. This would be particularly important in allowing the network to reach beyond the developed world.

One of the initiative’s great strengths is its partner network of over 60 organizations, including two very interesting Australian-based platforms, Meeco, an app-based life management dashboard, and Flamingo, which “goes beyond crowd-sourcing and ideation by enabling customers to design the experience they want, beyond product and price, within parameters that the business can deliver”.

At this point it seems that the Respect Network has a better chance of succeeding in empowering individuals with their own data than any other initiative to date.

However one of the real questions is the proportion of people who care enough about their privacy to do something about it. The last couple of years, including not least Snowden’s revelations, have primed us to be far more receptive to the idea of protecting personal data than ever before. Yet it will require a significant critical mass of people to shift from their current online behaviors to help a broader group to follow suit.

I have signed up for my Respect name and I look forward to seeing what it will enable.

Perhaps we are ripe to turn the tables on the companies who are making us the subjects of their big data compilation, and take back control. If so that would be a critical juncture not just in the Internet, but in the relationship between companies and individuals. However it plays out, this space will be very important to follow in coming months and years.

There has been a very strong response to the report, with so far good articles in The Australian, Dynamic Business, WA Today, and many others, and the Federal Minister for Communications Malcolm Turnbull saying “Intel Security’s report makes a major contribution to our understanding of how to safeguard Australians online and into the future.”

Parliamentary Secretary for Communications Paul Fletcher spoke at the report’s launch at Parliament House, drawing particular attention to the tagline we created for the Future of Social section:

Our reputation, personal opportunities and identity will be shaped by our participation in social media

Many of the questions to the panel after our presentations were about this theme. Since the event was part of the Federal Government’s Stay Smart Online Week initiative, the focus was on how we safeguard our reputation and identity in a world shaped by social media.

I found one of the most interesting statistics from the survey accompanying the report was that 54% of Australians believe it is unfair for our social media activity to influence our work or financial opportunities.

Is it unfair if it is a true reflection of us? Perhaps the primary idea is that it is unfair that our degree of participation in social media should shape our fortunes.

On the plane back from Canberra I came across a pertinent article in the newspaper about the reputation of restaurant customers.

Keeping notes on customers is hardly new. But as social media continues to knock gaping holes in the divide between personal and public, restaurants that bother to do their research are reaping bigger rewards for their efforts.

Shared online reservation systems like Dimmi’s ResDiary, as well as social media sites liked LinkedIn and good old Google searches, can be a double-edged sword. Systems can be used to track dining ‘performance’ – how much you ordered, whether you tipped well, how pleasantly you treated staff or whether you continued to camp out at the table long after you’d finished dessert.

Our reputation is not just about our work performance, or even how good a partner we are. The insights gained from social media in the broadest sense mean that our reputation indeed precedes us in all domains.

Is this fair?

It is in an interesting question.

Irrespective, there is no question that social media is increasingly shaping our reputations and opportunities.

The article focuses on my thoughts on the value of predictions. I’ve written before about why predictions usually have negative value, as an important way of framing how we think about the future.

I am quoted in the article:

“A prediction can have negative value, by misleading people, by taking away all the uncertainties and the possibilities,” he says.

The article describes how when I worked in the financial markets I saw analysts doing extensive research and then generating currency, interest rate, and equity market forecasts.

“What that did was collapse all the richness of thinking and give people on number. Once they’ve got one number they can believe it, in which case it’s likely to be wrong, or they believe it’s not true, in which case it’s useless.”

As often, I note that the role of the futurist, rather than making predictions, is to help people think effective about the future to act better in the present.

“Executives, government, leaders, everyone is overwhelmed by how much technology and society is changing. [Even] I am overwhelmed. But overwhelmed is dysfunctional, so what I am trying to do is help.”

The article goes on to give my life history in brief, including the books I have written that have shaped my career, and describes how I often use scenario planning with major organizations engaging with the future.

After describing some of my perspectives on social trends and uncertainties and economic structure, the piece goes on to look at how I see organizations today.

“As we are more able to collaborate, establish reputation and work effectively with people anywhere, it does ask the question, why does the organisation exist… rather than a whole lot of individuals collaborating? says Dawson.

There is real value to having an organisation, but only if the organisation is richly networked and that there is indeed a community.”

Organisations can take advantage of their workforce by “tapping the spare creativity, ingenuity and insights of people outside their existing roles. If an organisation is not well networked, it is a set of individuals, it doesn’t really have a good reason to exist. yet if it is well networked this means that the most relevant expertise can be applied to the challenges that arise.”

An edited version of the segment on the 7pm News also appeared on The Business program. Click on the image to see a video of the news segment.

Having spent quite a few years working in capital markets, I have long seen that shifts in the broader economy mean we need new layers of capital markets.

In 2006 BRW quoted me:

and I wrote that:

One of the points that came out in ABC news piece was the relationship between new funding forms such as crowdfunding and existing funding structures.

As the bank spokesperson noted, crowdfunding is unlikely to impact in any significant way the existing loan portfolio of banks.

That is the point: crowdfunding is additional to existing funding mechanisms. The impact on existing structures will be minimal. However many great ventures that never would have been possible before now have the opportunity to come to fruition. Almost no projects on crowdfunding platforms would have any chance of getting bank lending. A handful would have a chance to get traditional seed investment from angel investors. However in the vast majority of cases, worthwhile projects and endeavors are happening that in the past would have never got beyond an enthusiastic idea.

Efficient capital markets are about allocating money where it can have the greatest impact. Moving on from a purely financial view, contributors to crowdfunding projects are often taking artistic and social perspectives on where they allocate their funds.

The new layers of capital markets that are just beginning to surface through the early stages of crowdfunding will enable many new possibilities for the economy, society, and entrepreneurs. It won’t be a smooth path, but more dynamic capital means a more dynamic economy and society, uncovering new layers of value for all of us.

My keynote was on the broad global context for the current changes in education. After looking at major technological, social and structural changes, the future of work, and shifts in learning, I turned to the role of certification and credentials.

The rise of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) has helped bring into focus that universities have to date always bundled together three things:
– Education;
– Certification; and
– Networking.

The rise of Open Courseware and more recently services such as Coursera, Udacity and edX has now broken out (part of) the education piece.

What makes this unbundling particularly pointed for existing educational institutions is that all of these rich course materials are being made available for free.

Of course the reality is that education is itself being unbundled, into elements including course materials, lectures, tutoring, peer discussion, and one-on-one teaching. However to some degree, for some students, outstanding course materials can be a substitute for university education.

Where established tertiary institutions still hold a virtual monopoly is in certification. Recognized degrees are a pathway to employment and career success.

In fact a quality free education has always being available for those who live where there is a university. Anyone can walk into a lecture hall. To register and pay gives you tutorials, exams, and ultimately certification. That hasn’t changed. It is just that this availability of teaching materials is now scaled globally.

In a world in which education, certification, and networking have been unbundled, an absolutely vital question is the future of certification.

While it is possible that established, credentialed universities will maintain a monopoly on certification, that is unlikely in the medium to longer term.

Universities degrees have value largely because employers place value on them. However employers that are seeking the best talent will find they are at a disadvantage if they disregard people who have the same or often better capabilities than those who have a degree.

There are a number of possible future models for certification, including:

– Education and certification are provided separately. One opportunity for universities is to provide credentials to students who have studied elsewhere, including using freely availably course materials. There is no reason why new institutions cannot establish themselves as recognized providers of credentials as a stand alone service. It will take a little while for them to be recognized, however that need not take long given how quickly reputations can be established in a connected world.

– Aggregation of certification and experience. A nice example of aggregation of certification is provided by Degreed, a start-up which provides a score combining accredited and non-accredited informal education. This model could morph into certification for our accumulated experiences in the ‘school of hard knocks’.

– Distributed peer reputation measures. In the rise of the reputation economy we are building increasingly good methodologies for measuring reputation and competence in specific domains. Topcoder is a great example of a distributed work platform in which people’s capabilities are judged by peers to provide ratings and rankings. It is feasible that broader-based peer rating systems will provide far better measures of competence than formal degrees or the exam system that still largely drives them.

Many university leaders believe that they will retain a monopoly on certification of capabilities. Indeed, the very long-established brands and credibility of major universities will retain massive value into the future, if they are well managed.

However there are a number of emerging models for certification of capabilities.

Which do you think are likely to be most prominent in years to come?